2016 Fantasy Football Positional Outlook
As we get deeper into preseason football, fantasy football season gets closer. I actually have my first draft this Sunday. It is a little earlier than I prefer, but it is a keeper league so no harm done if I don’t do well this year. I am in it for the long haul. You have heard me rave about how much I love fantasy football, so I would be beating a dead horse at this point.
One thing I have not done is a positional breakdown for 2016. I will give you my sleepers, guys I like, guys I don’t like and everything in between. If you disagree, then you would obviously be wrong because I am pretty damn good at fantasy football. Below is the list of categories for each position…
- Top Dog– The best
- Mr. Consistency– You know what you’re getting
- Overrated- Ranked higher than they deserve
- Rebound Guy- Poised for a bounce back year
- Sleeper- late round gem
- Risky Business- Proceed with caution
- Abort Mission- Get out! NOW!
Top Dog- Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Even in a down year, Rodgers still managed to turn the ball over less than just about anybody. I am expecting huge things from him this year including winning league MVP. He may not throw for the most yards, but I expect to see him back at 35+ touchdowns with a low interception total.
Mr. Consistency- Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
The Saints are always going to throw the leather off the ball whether they are winning or losing. Brees manages to pad his stats in garbage time which is great for fantasy. That being said, it will be a cold day in hell before he throws for less than 4,800 yards and 30 touchdowns. Always a great option for fantasy.
Overrated- Eli Manning, New York Giants
Eli has had two really good seasons back to back thanks to a system change and the emergence of Odell Beckham. He still has entirely too many games where he will throw for under 250 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1-2 interceptions. His biggest problem is his name isn’t Peyton. Until he puts up consistent numbers week to week, I am not ranking him in the top 10.
Rebound Guy- Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Why the hell does everyone have him out of the top 10? He has the best offensive line, a top tier receiver, a reliable tight end and now a potential stud at running back. If he falls in your lap in the later rounds, pull the trigger. #StarOnTheHelmetKillsHim
Sleeper- Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Is he really a sleeper at this point? Everyone is jumping on the Derek Carr bandwagon, but for the sake of keeping with status quo, I will stick with it. Besides, there is no other option for “sleeper” QBs.
Risky Business- Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
If he stays healthy, wonderful. You will have a great fantasy QB. That is a big IF.
Abort Mission- Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
He caught like wild fire one year. Thank you for my one win where you torched the Saints. Suck it, Andrew (Blackwell). I am not buying the hype until you do it again where teams have one year of game film on you.
Top Dog- Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Todd Gurley? Ezekiel Elliot? David Johnson? No. No. No. Until someone takes out AP, he is my top guy. People said last year he would slow down. For any dunce who said that, good call because he led the league in rushing.
Mr. Consistency- Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
I love this guy. I am not telling you take him in the first six rounds. Later rounds though, absolutely. You know what you are getting out of him. He consistently puts up 6-7 points per game and even more in PPR formats (Solid flex option). If Jeremy Hill goes down or shits the bed, Gio is playing for a new deal. Cha-ching.
Overrated- Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
His second half of last year was awful. I could see a time share with him and Tevin Coleman down in ATL.
Rebound Guy- Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
Contract year, healthier line and he is not as fat. If I can grab him in the second or third, I am pulling the trigger on that quickly.
Sleeper- Dion Lewis, New England Patriots
Really good in PPR leagues. He is a true scat back and Belichick is great at getting him against linebackers thanks to Gronk. If he stays healthy, could be a huge late round steal.
Risky Business- Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Injuries and the emergence of Charcandrick West scares me with Charles. Dude is one knee injury away from both legs disintegrating on the field. IF healthy, he will be good. I just don’t know that I am willing to waste my second round choice on him. Find some shmuck to trade with if you land him. My best suggestion to you.
Abort Mission- Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Great rookie year. Two terrible years and then another strong showing from the muscle hamster. I think you would be better off trusting David Duke to not be a racist than Doug Martin to find some consistency. Again, use as trade bait.
Top Dog- Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
Anyone other than Brown, you have the IQ of ranch dressing.
Mr. Consistency- AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals
1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. Consistent as gravity. Always a safe bet in the early rounds.
Overrated- Brandon Marshall, New York Jets
I am not saying he will be a bad pick, but I think he is ranked higher than he deserves. His personality makes him a bit of wild card. He is coming off his best year yet, but a lot of off-season drama. You will get 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, but I am not taking him over Mike Evans, Keenan Allen or Jordy Nelson. Speaking of…
Rebound Guy- Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Yup. Don’t forget about this guy. Two years ago, he was putting up Antonio Brown numbers consistently getting 18-20 points per week.
Sleeper- Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders
I have bashed this guy to no end, but he may have found his mojo with Derrick Carr. His first year in Oakland, he caught over 900 yards and 9 Tds. In the 8th or 9th round, not a bad choice there.
Risky Business- Alshon Jeffrey, Chicago Bears
He will be gone by the second round in most leagues. His production has been pretty much boom or bust. The boom could be a MASSIVE pay off though. Injuries have also been a huge problem for Jeffrey. Want to know my suggestion? You guessed it. Try to get a 2 for 1 deal.
Abort Mission- Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills
He has all the talent in the world, but he plays for Rex Ryan. Receivers tend to suck when playing for Ryan. His leading receiver averages about 5 TDs per year. Last year was an aberration. Enter at your own risk on this one. I just don’t see him offering up as much appeal as Jeffrey or some of my other players in these two categories.
Top Dog- Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
Duh. Gronk Smash.
Mr. Consistency- Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
A pair of 1,000 yard seasons back to back. With Kelvin Benjamin set to return, good luck choosing who you want to focus on.
Overrated- Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
I had him last year and he was amazeballs. However, when your stat lines are 4 catches for 5 yards and 3 TDs, I will gladly take many guys over you.
Rebound Guy- Martellus Bennett, New England Patriots
Remember that time before Aaron Hernandez decided to kill someone? Yeah the Patriots demolished defenses with two tight ends. Bennett has all the talent in the world and he has Brady and Bellichick. I see him bouncing back in a huge way.
Sleeper- Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He has unfortunately been in some trouble with his team this training camp and “lost his starting spot.” Get your shit together ASJ! I am still willing to take a fly on him deep in the draft because I could see him being a great payoff. Jameis Winston has a year under his belt. I think this offense will make some big strides and defenses have to focus on two 6’5 receivers.
Risky Business- Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
Injury. Injury. Injury. He has yet to play a full season as he enters his fourth year. If he stays healthy, you’re looking at a top three tight end. Depending on who is there and where I were to draft him, I may take a fly on him. Just don’t waste one of your first 4 or 5 rounds on him.
Abort Mission- Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns
Something doesn’t just click in your 8th year that makes you a stud. If you take a fly on him, you will be making a giant mistake. The guy was drafted in 2008 and had 603 career receiving yards. Then puts up a 1,000 yard year. He is a prime example of a one hit wonder.