Flu = Covid – Fighting the Ignorance

Lately, I have been enjoying commenting on Facebook posts to simply establish dominance against the spread of misinformation. I may be an asshole, but I am not as big of an asshole as the asshole who spreads false information.

It’s easy to completely shit all over the Flu = Covid arguments.

Most of the time, the people you’re arguing against can’t support their claims. When they try, it is usually flawed information, faulty logic at best or outdated information. In fact, upon discussion with someone recently, he shared a column that was dated from early March regarding death rates. Right, because those deaths haven’t increased at all since then. Check your dates fool.

It’s like arguing with a brick wall. But, I enjoy it. I hate that so many people believe it, but I enjoy leaving these people looking like cut down trees…stumped.

It’s the equivalent of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. I am the former. I will stop at nothing until you submit or quit.

Meanwhile, these idiots are unmoved by facts thus immovable. So it’s not a really compliment to them in this case.

This whole Covid = Flu narrative is ludicrous and ignorant.

Let’s take a look at numbers based on the referenced antibody studies. Some of the studies suggest the Covid19 cases are actually “50 times” higher or even go as far to say “25 percent” of certain populations have contracted it.

I’ll play your game, while most will not play mine. We can start with the flu, the means for comparison.

Flu Numbers for 2019-2020

The cases for this past season ranged anywhere from 39-56 million. The deaths ranged from 24,000 – 62,000.

Now let’s calculate the death rate range based on those numbers, as per CDC’s cases and deaths. The same organization these idiots don’t trust for accurate reporting for Covid19. Yet, they’re using the CDC flu numbers as a point of reference. Flaw number one already.

62,000 (high death) – 39,000,000 (low case) = .0015 = 0.15%
24,000 (low death) / 56,000,000 (high case) = .0004 = 0.04%

Flu Death Rate Range – 0.04 – 0.15%

Covid19 Numbers Thus Far (as of last night 5/25)

I will start with the local numbers for where I am, Louisiana. LA was one of the epicenters for Covid19 because of New Orleans, likely due to Mardi Gras. At one point, our death rate was one of the highest per capita in the world because of it. Keep in mind, I am only changing the case number, not death toll.

Louisiana Numbers as per CDC

2,560 (deaths) / 37,040 (cases)
.0691 = 6.9% (Death Rate)

LA Inflated Numbers Based on Antibody Studies (Compared to high death rate for flu)

50x Cases – 1,852,000
Death Rate – .0014 = 0.14% (0.15%)

25% of Population – 1,162,250
Death Rate – .0022 = 0.22% (0.15%)

US Numbers as per CDC
99,470 (deaths) / 1,700,000 (Cases)
Death Rate – .0585 = 5.9%

US Inflated Numbers Based on Antibody Studies (Compared to high death rate for flu)

50x Cases – 85,000,000
Death Rate – .0012 = 0.12% (0.15%)

25% of Population – 82,050,000
Death Rate – .0012 = 0.12% (0.15%)

Global Numbers as per CDC

346,000 (deaths) / 5,500,000 (cases)
Death Rate – .0629 = 6.2%

Global Inflated Numbers Based on Antibody Studies (Compared to high death rate of flu)

50x Cases – 275 million
Death Rate – .0013 = 0.13% (0.15%)

25% of Population – 1.95 Billion
Death Rate – .00002 = 0.02% (0.15%)

Looking at the numbers

While it is plausible (to some degree) that there are more cases than we actually know about, taking antibody studies at face value ignores other sides of the equation. Some have been faulty at best ie Cali Doctor Viral Video. Unfortunately, getting some people to admit that is painfully hard because they can’t see past their own nose.

The reality is there is still so much uncertainty with the virus because it is new. That is one of many major flaws comparing it to the flu. Leading epidemiologist have enough conclusive studies over time to fight the flu accordingly, given the first known pandemic outbreak was fucking 1918. Literally more than 100 years ago.

There are also “studies” that show we may not have recorded the correct amount of deaths as they may be higher. In contention, there are also “studies” to show we may be inflating the death totals. Although, every person I have asked to provide said studies has either refused or didn’t acknowledge the question altogether, making it hard for them to stand on the claims. Show your work and evidence if you want to stand on two feet.

Based on the “inflated” numbers above from antibody studies, the only numbers that show it may not be comparable to the flu is if 25% of the world’s population have contracted it. That is the only death rate that would fall well below (double) the low rate of death for the flu. The rest of the numbers show the death rate is a hair below the highest possible death rate of the flu in 2019-20.

“Sweden Didn’t Lock Down Anything and They Have Been Good”

This is easily the most brilliant narrative constructed by the tin foil hat folks.

People actually using Sweden as a point of reference for why Covid19 isn’t severe. First of all, they have one of the worst deaths rates per capita in the world. They also have a death rate double the global rate at nearly 12%.

4,124 (deaths) / 34,440 (cases)
Death Rate – .1197 = 12.0%

For shits and giggles, let’s apply antibody measurements…

50x cases = 1.72 million
Death Rate – .0023 = 0.23% (0.15% Flu)

25% of Population = 2.57 million
Death Rate – .0016 = 0.16% (0.15% Flu)

Yeah, real good point of reference for Covid and not applying lock-downs. They didn’t lock down, but still applied social distancing and stay at home orders for those experiencing symptoms. They also announced in mid-April a plan to roll out 100,000 tests per week. Although, that plan struggled according to their testing coordinator, Harriet Wallberg. Logistically, they had difficulty.

More than 32,000 tests were carried out roughly 2 weeks ago and 210,000 samples collected.

The most ironic part of people mentioning Sweden is the fact I have seen more people reference them who rail on socialism and socialistic ideologies, as evidenced by their social media timelines.

It’s the same group of people who shared memes of empty toilet paper shelves saying that is what socialism looks like.

Rail on the country that heavily taxes it’s citizens for sick leave, pensions, health care and education and then use them as a baseline for why the US should have never been locked down…

Try breathing from your nose every once in a while. The oxygen may flow to your brain more efficiently.

Despite me believing in the implementation of some of those socialistic policies, it is an unfair comparison based on population size, density and diversity. Just like a comparison of handling Covid would be unfair.

False equivalency.

Death Rate Aside, How Does the Flu Compare?

If these antibody studies floating around prove to be definitively accurate (again, still debate there), there are still other factors to consider before making Covid and Flu comparable. That includes…

  • Incubation
  • Vaccination
  • Symptoms
  • Contagion Period
  • Reinfection
  • How It Spreads
  • Hospitalization Rates
  • How Long the Virus Has Been Around (as previously mentioned)

The incubation period for Covid can be significantly longer considering it can be 14 days. Then the obvious fact that the flu has a damn vaccination.

bUt, tHaT CaUsEs AuTiSm.

Shut up pseudoscience. If the leading Autism organizations aren’t pushing that narrative, that should tell you what you need to know.

The symptoms are different. The main one to mention is the shortness of breath that can last long after the you’re no longer positive for Covid19. It also has a lasting impact on the lungs.

Much like the incubation period, the contagion period is also longer. Both are shining examples of why strict lock down measures were put in place. As well as hospitalization to slow down the overcrowding in certain areas.

Of course when you ask people who love to scream these two are one and the same or Covid is lesser than, these morons never have an answer to these other factors. They deflect and talk about the numbers I reference and say I am pulling them out of thin air.

No idiot, I am pulling them from the studies you are using as a point of reference to make your argument.

What is the Answer to Fighting Covid19?

I don’t fucking know. I won’t ever pretend to. As leading epidemiologists know more, we will know more. They are still trying to sort it all out because there aren’t many definitive answers right now.

Do we need to find a way to roll the economy back out? Yes, some have started.

Do we need to do it safely? Yes.

Will people die if we don’t? Yes.

Will people die if we do? Yes.

It is a double edged sword with substantial arguments to be made on both sides.

Flu = Covid isn’t it though. Stop trying to make it as such.

Furthermore, it is even funnier that most of the people referencing the flu are taking one of the worst case scenarios of the flu (2017) and trying to paint it as the norm.

Use the arguments I have displayed against anyone who tries to pain with that brush and I promise they will likely not have an answer for you.They will deflect as opposed to defend their claims. It’s honestly adorable.

Scroll through those people’s timelines and it will more often than not (based on my experience) indicate they have been pushing the narrative of Covid Schmovid along the way. Thus pointing to signs of clear confirmation bias.

 

 

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