NFL 2020 Week 11 Monday Not So Morning Thoughts

As per usual, start this off with the Weekly Picks.

  • Saints -3.5 (Win)
  • Steelers -10.5 (Win)
  • Dolphins -3.5 (Loss)
  • Packers +1.5 (Loss)
  • Bucs -4 (TBD)

Season Record: 31-22-1

NFL Viewership Update (1 Week Lag)

An update as of week 10, the NFL ratings are down as a whole by 6%. That isn’t a huge deal given the trend ratings fall a bit in election years.

Week 1 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 20.54 Million (-7%)
Early Double Headers – 13.53 Million (+7%)
Sunday Singles – 13.59 Million (-12%)
Late Double Headers – 25.85 Million (+8%)
Sunday Night Football – 18.94 Million (-15%)
Monday Night Football (Early) – 10.76 Million (-18%)
Monday Night Football (Late) – 7.70 Million (-28%)

Week 2 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 6.68 Million (+1%)
Early Double Headers – 9.75 Million (-39%)
Sunday Singles – 16.78 Million (+11%)
Late Double Headers – 18.87 Million (-19%)
Sunday Night Football – 17.69 Million (+0.3%)
Monday Night Football – 15.59 Million (+32%)

Week 3 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 5.43 Million (-14%)
Early Double Headers – 11.68 Million (-15%)
Sunday Singles – 16.57 Million (-11%)
Late Double Headers – 22.79 Million (+1%)
Sunday Night Football – 17.80 Million (-4%)
Monday Night Football – 14.02 Million (+32%)

Week 4 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 5.41 Million (-70%)
Early Double Headers – 16.85 Million (+2%)
Sunday Singles – 9.95 Million (-32%)
Late Double Headers – 18.61 Million (-6%)
Sunday Night Football – 15.08 Million (-37%)
Monday Night Football – 8.65 Million (-17%)
Monday Night Football (Resch) – 14.6 Million (N/A)

Week 5 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 14.71 Million (+3%)
Early Double Headers – 14.14 (-12%)
Sunday Singles – 12.49 Million (-23%)
Late Double Headers – 22.87 Million (-7%)
Sunday Night Football – 15.08 Million (-17%)
Monday Night Football – 10.69 Million (-4%)
Special – 10.8 Million (N/A)

Week 6 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football (ReSch) – 12.16 Million (-24%)
Early Double Headers – 12.10 Million (-7%)
Sunday Singles – 16.66 Million (+2%)
Late Double Headers – 22.31 Million (+4%)
Sunday Night Football – 12.60 Million (-15%)
Monday Night Football – 11.32 Million (-15%)

Week 7 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football — 10.07 Million (-26%)
Early Double Headers – 14.53 Million (+22%)
Sunday Singles – 15.88 Million (+20%)
Late Double Headers – 22.90 Million (-1%)
Sunday Night Football – 14.31 Million (-33%)
Monday Night Football – 10.07 Million (-26%)

Week 8 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 11.68 Million (-13%)
Early Double Headers – 12.31 Million (+2%)
Sunday Singles – 18.65 Million (+7%)
Late Double Headers – 22.77 Million (+8%)
Sunday Night Football – 16.93 Million (-8%)
Monday Night Football – 11.70 Million (+17%)

Week 9 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 13.17 Million (-6%)
Early Double Headers – 10.23 Million (-11%)
Sunday Singles – 15.74 Million (-14%)
Late Double Headers – 22.71 Million (+2%)
Sunday Night Football – 16.88 Million (-23%)
Monday Night Football – 9.83 Million (-30%)

Week 10 Final Tally
Thursday Night Football – 12.16 Million (-10%)
Early Double Headers – 18.24 Million (+73%)
Sunday Singles – 10.34 Million (-30%)
Late Double Headers – 20.09 Million (-13%)
Sunday Night Football – 15.79 Million (-31%)
Monday Night Football – 11.45 Million (-28%)

Averages Through Week 10
TNF – 11.20 Million (2019 – 15.4)
SNF – 16.11 Million (2019 – 20.5)
MNF – 11.37 Million (2019 – 12.6)

Joe Burrow’s Future in Cincinnati

On Sunday, rookie star Joe Big Balls Burrow suffered season ending ACL and MCL tears along with other damage to his knee. There is now a chance that Burrow could miss the beginning of the 2021 season because of how severe the injury is. That is obviously bad for Burrow and the Bengals, but it is also bad for the NFL.

Burrow is only a rookie and everyone on both teams were quick to huddle around the first year quarterback to show support and sympathy. Joe Blow doesn’t walk into the league and get that kind of respect. Joe Burrow, however, is different. He is built different. His style of play is exciting. His attitude is intoxicating. His confidence oozes in ways that make it hard not to love him.

There is a dirty truth about the Bengals in 2020 though…They have been miserable blocking for Joe Burrow. I hope the offensive line was already priority one for the Bengals. If it wasn’t, it better damn well be now. No point in having a franchise quarterback if you can’t protect him.

Taysom Hill’s First Start Leads to Saints Win

When your first pass in your first start is a designed roll out to get you completing a pass to boost confidence, you’re not convincing me of anything. Maybe I am just bitter because I won’t get to see significant snaps for Jameis Winston in a Saints uniform. Despite that, what we saw on Sunday can get you by with a good roster. However, it is not sustainable against good defenses. Fortunately, all they need is to weather the storm for a few weeks.

Just look at what is happening in Baltimore right now. Taysom Hill is a really poor man’s Lamar Jackson and they aren’t able to play from behind and become futile against good defenses. Just imagine when the Saints face a defense who can actually stop somebody with Hill behind center…

Spoiler alert. It won’t end well.

If you’re a Saints fan, you probably have a hard on for Taysom Hill. I get why. He is a swiss army knife who can do it all and the epitome of a glue guy. Great football player. Can’t play quarterback though.

My Super Bowl Contenders

I still like the Kansas City Chiefs to repeat as Super Bowl Champions through 11 weeks. They feel like the safest bet in 2020. It is just too damn hard to keep pace with that offense. The biggest threat to the Chiefs in the AFC is the Steelers. If Big Ben continues to play mistake free football and maintain his health, they are every bit as good as I thought they could be when I made my pre-season predictions.

For the AFC, right now I will put Chiefs and Steelers in the contender category.

In the NFC, I think the race is much less clear. There are things I don’t like about all of the top teams in the NFC. Narrowing it down, the Packers are probably my favorite. The defense is good and they still have Aaron Rodgers who I trust in big games. Next, I would say Tampa Bay as I watch them struggle with the Los Angeles Rams. The ceiling of the Bucs is high with a relatively high floor. Then you have the Bucs kryptonite, the Saints.

My biggest scare with the Saints is if they get in a shootout with one of the other top quarterbacks, can they match it at this point in Brees’ career? I really don’t know. I would still put them as a contender though, especially if that defense continues to pressure QBs and make plays like they have been. I just have less confidence in them than I have the previous three years.

Out west, I still say Seahawks despite their miserably bad defense. They need to get a little healthier and they should be just fine. It is hard to doubt Russell Wilson with how well he has played this season.

My Contenders
Chiefs
Steelers
Packers
Bucs
Saints
Seahawks

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