Unapologetically Me

Super Bowl Preview and Winner Prediction

Super Bowl Weekend is finally here! Let’s get it! Could we have a better matchup? Answer, no.

When the Super Bowl involves the GOAT Tom Brady against the potential future GOAT Patrick Mahomes, I want all the smoke in this one. I hope to the football gods we get a 45-42 barn burner. I hope these two super humans sling the damn ball all over the field. More importantly, this was the match up I picked in the preseason. Heyoooo!

This is a heavyweight battle with two of the best quarterbacks and rosters this league has to offer. This could also end up being the proverbial passing of the torch from Brady to Mahomes. Ironically enough should it happen, Mahomes becomes a back to back Super Bowl winner. The last QB to do it…TB12. Or…it could be the saavy vet taking another young soul to school. We will see. I just want the high flying fireworks.

Regardless of how the game pans out, this matchup is very interesting to me because of these rosters and how they could potentially game plan for it. Here are my takeaways for how the Chiefs or Bucs win this. At the end, I will go ahead and share my picks on prop bets and my eventual winner and score.

Takeaways for the Chiefs to Win

Short Passing – The beauty of having a QB like Mahomes and the speed of guys like Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman is it doesn’t really matter if you are unbalanced. You can throw it a million times and it likely isn’t hurting your chance of winning. They may need to do just that. They are missing both of their starting tackles for the Super Bowl against a team who can pin their ears back and go. How do you minimize one of the league’s best pass rushing units? Force them to account for the short game.

Stop the Run – This sounds entirely too cliche and I hate that I am saying it, but it’s true. Tampa can run the damn ball when they choose to. The Chiefs run D is miserable. They need to keep Tampa Bay playing behind the chains. Cut down the bigger plays on 1st and 2nd down. You can’t give Brady favorable down and distance.

Let Bruce Arians Bury Himself – He lives and dies by the deep ball. You know it is eventually coming. Let him make the mistakes. If the Chiefs get an early two score lead, I could see some ugliness unfolding.

Spread the Field – Sideline to sideline, Tampa may have the best duo of linebackers with Lavonta David and Devin White. White has come on like a bat out of hell in the postseason being able to take away important weapons like Alvin Kamara. The Chiefs have a stable of backs and an absolute baller in Travis Kelce, use Kecle as a decoy to help open the middle. Get those linebackers chasing.

Capitalize on Redzone Trips – Get your paydirt. The Bucs get to the redzone more than anyone. More opportunities leads to more scores.

Takeaways for the Bucs to Win

Minimize the Blitz – Most of Patrick Mahomes’ interceptions come against 7 and 8 man coverage. They don’t have their tackles. USE THAT! The Bucs are getting Vita Vea back. I am no football genius, but smart money says run 2-4-5 basically. They have two great pass rushers in Jason Pierre Paul and Shaq Barrett. Go full nascar with them while Suh and Vea plug the middle. Sit your guys back and don’t get burned like you did in round 1. Beat them with a 3 or 4 man rush.

Play the Short Game – Slow and steady wins the race. Don’t get into a track meet with Patrick Mahomes. Attack their horrible run defense and keep your offense on the field as much as possible. We saw the Bucs jump on the Packers by throwing deep. We saw them continue to try and pour it on which led to more turnovers closing the 3 score gap. Classic Arians.

Use Extra Pass Protection – Protect your quarterback. Don’t try to spread the defense when the Chiefs have a formidable pass rush, especially on the interior with Chris Jones. Keep a clean pocket for Brady.

Keep an eye on Hill – Tyreek Hill was on pace for 800 yards and 8 TDs after the first quarter of their last meeting. That was because they allowed Hill to get behind the defense time and time again. This shouldn’t have to be said here, but we saw what happened round 1.

No Lead is Safe – We saw the Bucs jump out quick against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is a first ballot HOFer and one of the best ever. Patrick Mahomes is a different beast. In four of their last five playoff games, they have come from behind two scores or more. Going back to what I said about the playing the short game, don’t try to go for the home runs on 3rd and short. I get it basically becomes a punt, but be smarter.

Weekly Picks and Prop Bets

Well it comes down to the Super Bowl to determine if I win my weekly picks group. I am going head to head with a buddy on our bet. Three buddies and I pick five games against the spread every week and continue all throughout playoffs. It comes down to the Super Bowl for the winner now.

I am currently 49-45-3 (50-45-1) as we get a win for two pushes. The person I am going against is 48-45-4 (50-45). We picked the same for the SB spread. A push can put me over or it comes down to props.

Just for the benefit of seeing where I stand on the props.

  • National Anthem Over/Under 1:59 – Under (Might be fucked there already)
  • Head or Tails – Heads
  • Chiefs or Bucs Score First – Bucs
  • Run or Pass First Play – Pass
  • Gatorade Color – Orange
  • Over/Under 57 – Under

Moment of Truth – Who is the Winner?

I picked them in the preseason and I am picking them now. I have the Chiefs winning by the same score as the regular season 27-24. It feels wrong picking against Tom Brady because you just don’t bet against him. I just don’t trust Arians to get out of his own way. Ultimately, should the Chiefs get a lead, I don’t know if the Bucs can climb from the hole. On the other side, I don’t trust any lead against Patty Mahomes.

That being said, I will be wearing my Brady Super Bowl shirsey that I just bought. Go Bucs. Go Tom! I want another ring for the GOAT. Keep pouring it on.

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